An updated report on the Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA3), compiled by the Government of Ukraine under the coordination of the Ministry for Restoration in cooperation with the World Bank Group, the European Commission, and the United Nations, has been published.
According to the report, the total cost of Ukraine's restoration over the next decade is estimated at USD 486 billion, approximately 2.8 times Ukraine's nominal GDP for 2023. This year's figure is also 18% higher than the previous RDNA2 estimate of USD 411 billion as of February 24, 2023.
- Working with international partners allows us to picture losses and restoration needs accurately. We clearly understand the priorities and cost of restoration in 2024. The assessment results will form the basis of planning documents and prioritization methods. In particular, the priorities identified in the RDNA3 report will be integrated into the State Strategy for Regional Development (SSRD) action plan. In addition, the state digital restoration ecosystem DREAM will label projects that meet the needs according to the RDNA. That will allow for better prioritization of critical restoration projects, and provide them with priority support, - said Oleksandr Kubrakov, Deputy Prime Minister for Restoration of Ukraine - Minister for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development of Ukraine.
The RDNA3 assessment covers the damage caused during the nearly two-year period since russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, through December 31, 2023.
According to the report, direct losses in Ukraine have reached nearly $152 billion, with housing, transportation, trade and industry, energy, and agriculture identified as the most affected sectors.
As in last year's report, the regions of Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Kyiv were most affected. Across the country, 10% of the housing stock was damaged or destroyed. The destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in June 2023 led to catastrophic environmental consequences. It deepened the problems already faced by Ukrainians struggling to access housing, water, food, medical services, etc.
Ukraine's critical needs for 2024 include restoration in the following areas:
- housing and utilities - $3.1 billion
- transportation and logistics - $2.3 billion
- energy - 2.7 billion dollars
- social infrastructure - 2.4 billion dollars
- industry and services - $3.6 billion
- cross-sectoral priorities - $1.2 billion
According to the updated estimate, Ukraine will need $15.3 billion in 2024 for critical restoration projects, focusing on supporting the private sector and restoring social infrastructure and utilities, energy, transportation, and housing. About $5.5 billion of this funding was provided by Ukraine's international partners and from Ukraine's resources. At the same time, about $10.5 billion has yet to be funded.
An efficient restoration demands reforms that align with EU policies and standards and support the "build back better" principle. In addition, the priorities set out in the RDNA3 will be integrated into the medium-term budget planning process. That will ensure timely and predictable funding and capacity building for the public sector. It will also allow implementing agencies to plan and manage comprehensive restoration efforts.
The full version of the RDNA3 report is available here: https://bit.ly/4bHujET
