The estimated cost of Ukraine’s recovery is now nearly three times the country’s projected nominal GDP for 2025.
According to the updated Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment - RDNA5, released on February 23 by the Government of Ukraine together with the World Bank Group, the European Commission, and the United Nations, total recovery and reconstruction needs as of December 31, 2025 are estimated at USD 588 billion over the next decade. This represents an increase of USD 64 billion compared to the previous year’s assessment.
The assessment covers the period from February 24, 2022 to December 31, 2025 - nearly four years of full-scale war. During this time, direct damage has exceeded USD 195 billion.
The most affected sectors remain
- housing - accounting for 31% of total damage,
- transport - 20.6%,
- energy - 12%,
- trade and industry - 9%,
- agriculture - 6%.
More than 80% of destruction is concentrated in frontline and border regions.
The largest recovery needs over the next ten years are in the transport sector, totaling more than USD 96 billion. Energy sector needs are estimated at USD 90.6 billion. In 2025 alone, the number of damaged or destroyed energy facilities increased by approximately 21%. The district heating sector remains particularly underfunded - 2026 financing needs amount to USD 1.6 billion, while less than 1% of this requirement is currently secured. The housing sector requires approximately USD 90 billion over the next decade. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, 14% of the housing stock has been damaged or destroyed, affecting more than 3 million households. Significant resources are also required for trade and industry - over USD 63 billion, agriculture - over USD 55 billion, and demining and explosive hazard management - nearly USD 28 billion.
In 2026, USD 5.8 billion is already available to finance priority programs; however, the overall funding gap stands at USD 9.5 billion. The most significant shortfalls are observed in energy, housing, transport, and water supply and sanitation.
At the same time, RDNA5 highlights a structural shift in Ukraine’s recovery framework. Planning and prioritization of investments for 2026 are being carried out within the Public Investment Management reform framework, with DREAM serving as its digital backbone.
The preparation of the 2026 State Budget marks the first full budget cycle implemented under the updated PIM procedures. The PIM system governs the planning, appraisal, and prioritization of public investments at the national, regional, and local levels.
State-level investments are consolidated into a Single Project Pipeline, while regional and local pipelines are being further developed to serve as central reference points for financing and implementation decisions.
Importantly, aggregated data from the DREAM platform were used to assess recovery needs at the regional and local levels. DREAM provides a consolidated, transparent, and structured overview of community and regional investment needs, ensuring alignment within a unified PIM logic.
Overall, Ukraine’s recovery framework is transitioning from emergency response toward a structured, institutionalized, and data-driven model of investment management. This process goes beyond rebuilding infrastructure - it represents a broader economic transformation, the adoption of European standards, and the establishment of a foundation for Ukraine’s full integration into the European Union.
